Ceasefire in Palestine: Exposing injustice, global failures, and the uncertain road ahead

The conflict has exposed not only the brutality of Israeli policies but also the structural failures of an international community unwilling or unable to uphold its own standards.

The ceasefire in Palestine has offered a reprieve from the violence and destruction that has been inflicted upon Gaza since October 2023 but a deeper historical and political analysis shows a continuing pattern of oppression, resistance, and repeated failures by the international community to address the main issues.

These hostilities are not isolated recent events but are deeply entrenched in the history of occupation, and it is important to remember how we have arrived at this point. The roots of this occupation go back to the Nakba in 1948, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forcibly displaced from their homes to make way for the creation of the state of Israel, a state that was forced through by the British government, under the arrangements of the Balfour Agreement. This initial act of dispossession and the ongoing illegal military occupation of Palestinian territories has defined the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians for decades.

Palestinians living in the occupied territories have faced land confiscations, home demolitions, restricted movement, and the blockade of Gaza. In Gaza, 2.2 million people have lived under severe restrictions, unable to rebuild their lives or access basic resources and this cycle of blockade, violence, and destruction has perpetuated conditions of extreme poverty and despair.

The Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, marked a turning point in the ongoing struggle. While Hamas justified the operation as a response to the years of occupation and another attempt to bring global attention to Palestinian suffering, the attack and the subsequent retaliation by Israel unleashed a level of devastation not seen in many years. The Netanyahu government subsequently declared war, aiming to dismantle Hamas and recover Israeli hostages: however, the scale of Israel’s military response – targeting civilian infrastructure, refugee camps, and essential services in Gaza – has highlighted the highly disproportionate nature of the conflict.

Statements such as former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s declaration of a “complete siege” and the depiction of Palestinians as “human animals” also revealed the Israeli government’s broader objectives, which targeted not just Hamas but the Palestinian population as a whole. The death toll, now estimated at over 46,000 Palestinians – according to the medical journal Lancet, it could be over 186,000 – including thousands of children, and the mass displacement of civilians, have shown the consequences of these policies.

International efforts to end the conflict have been woefully inadequate. The paralysis of the UN Security Council, mainly due to the repeated use of U.S. vetoes to shield Israel from condemnation, has shown how limited international diplomacy has been. World leaders’ tepid condemnations of violence have often failed to translate into meaningful action, leaving Palestinians to endure unimaginable suffering while the underlying causes of the conflict have remained unaddressed.

Of course, as the ceasefire takes effect, it should bring a moment of hope, but it also raises questions about what lies ahead. The international community has done little to acknowledge what has been happening to Palestinians, not just since October 2023 but going back all the way to 1948, and has done everything to support the actions of Israel; why would post-ceasefire arrangements be any different?

Palestinians are now returning to destroyed homes, schools and hospitals, and face an uncertain future – the international community’s repeated failures to hold Israel accountable or to enforce resolutions that could lead to a just and lasting peace will also raise significant questions about progress after Stage 3 of the ceasefire is completed. For Palestinians, a return to pre-October 2023 conditions – systemic apartheid, an illegal occupation of their lands, and brutal dispossession – is totally unacceptable.

This fragile ceasefire is compounded by historical precedents where ceasefires have been frequently broken by Israel or exploited as opportunities for them to regroup militarily. The question of accountability also remains: what mechanisms, if any, exist to prevent a return to violence? Without addressing the structural inequalities and injustices that have been a feature of this deliberately intractable conflict, any pause in hostilities at this stage will just be a temporary measure, and not a long-term solution.

Selective justice and the erosion of international law

Israel’s actions in Gaza and the broader lack of international support for Palestine highlights the selective application of justice and international law. The assassination of senior Hamas negotiators by Israel in 2024 amid discussions of a possible ceasefire are examples of the deliberate sabotage of diplomatic efforts, and far from being isolated incidents, this reflects a broader Israeli strategy of prioritising military action over meaningful conflict resolution.

Despite the clarity of international law and conventions outlining the protection of civilian populations and the prohibition of collective punishment, Israel has defied these principles with impunity. The starvation, mass killings, and forced displacement of Palestinians constitute acts that experts and international bodies have increasingly identified as genocidal, yet the response from the international community, particularly from powerful states such as the United States and Germany, has been characterised by double standards, inaction and hypocrisy.

The United States, Israel’s staunchest ally, has consistently shielded it from accountability. By vetoing critical United Nations Security Council resolutions, the U.S. has ensured that Israel faces no meaningful consequences for its actions. At the same time, billions of dollars in military aid and weaponry have flowed into Israel, facilitating its military campaigns against Gaza. This unquestioning support has emboldened Israel to escalate its actions, knowing that it will face no significant repercussions – and, so far, it hasn’t.

Germany has also maintained arms trade agreements with Israel while publicly condemning violence in abstract or weak terms. These actions undermine Germany’s professed commitment to human rights and international law, exposing a willingness to prioritise political alliances over the lives of vulnerable populations.

In contrast, a small number of Western nations have sought to challenge this: Spain, Ireland, and Norway have demonstrated political courage by recognising Palestine and ceasing arms sales to Israel. South Africa’s decision to bring a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice was a significant step toward holding Israel accountable for its actions. The Court’s findings, which recognised the likelihood of genocide and called for an immediate cessation of such acts, reflect the severity of the situation.

The International Criminal Court also took decisive action by issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu and Gallant, and these developments signal an increasing willingness among some players within the international system – not all – to confront the Israeli government. However, these efforts have been met with fierce resistance, particularly from the United States, including threats of sanctions by U.S. Senators against nations that attempt to enforce the Court’s arrest warrants.

This pattern of selective enforcement of international law not only perpetuates the suffering of Palestinians but also undermines the credibility of global institutions, and the message sent to oppressed populations worldwide is that justice is contingent upon geopolitical considerations rather than universal principles.

Israel has lost this war amid global moral failures

While there will be arguments about the role of Hamas and its actions on October 7, 2023, there is no question that this war was initiated by Israel and is mainly a continuation of its actions since 1948. Conflicts should never be a comparative contest but the comparisons will be made: 1,139 Israeli’s died on October 7 – including many killed by the Israel Defense Forces under the “Hannibal Directive” – and at least 46,000 in Palestine and 3,000 in Lebanon have been killed by Israel since that time. But by any measure at all, this has been a disproportionate response by Israel, even more disproportionate than any of its actions against Palestinian people since 1948.

However, despite the massive destruction inflicted by Israel, its ambitions have been mainly unfulfilled: Israel instigated this war, and it has lost. It targeted Hamas for total annihilation, yet the movement remains intact, and in some respects, is stronger today, at least numerically. Hamas retains its operational capacity, and its symbolic significance as a resistance movement has only grown, particularly as the devastation in Gaza has highlighted to the world the profound suffering of Palestinians caused by Israel. Tensions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority may emerge, but the broader narrative is one of resilience amid destruction.

In addition to this, Israel’s international standing has suffered catastrophic damage. Its status as a pariah state has been cemented by its actions, which have gone far beyond the constraints of international law. Once criticised as an apartheid state and brutal occupier – as if that wasn’t bad enough – Israel’s recent actions have added accusations of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and ecocide to its record. While its allies in the West have provided diplomatic cover, public sentiment globally has shifted significantly and the massive protests in capitals worldwide and growing condemnation of Israel’s actions reveal a rising awareness of the atrocities committed.

The economic fallout for Israel is equally damaging. The war has cost the economy tens of billions of dollars, with long-term projections painting an even worse outcome – over $400 billion in lost revenues over the next decade. Declining investment, shrinking consumer confidence, and disrupted labor markets reflect the broader instability resulting from its militarised messianic policies. Even with its superior military and economic power, Israel emerges as the conflict’s biggest loser, particularly as these events have only deepened internal political divisions and societal fractures.

The reconstruction of Gaza, however, presents its own challenges. With an estimated $80 billion required to rebuild, the question is who will bear the cost of this. While nations such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia have stepped forward in the past, the scale of destruction requires an unprecedented global effort. Yet, this reconstruction must come with guarantees that the rebuilt infrastructure and lives will not be destroyed again by Israel in future conflicts inflicted at the whim of Netanyahu, or whomever replaces him. Without accountability for Israel and strong international mechanisms to enforce peace, the cycle of destruction and rebuilding risks becoming endless.

The reputations of Western nations have also been seriously tarnished. The unwavering support for Israel from leaders such as Joe Biden, Anthony Blinken, Keir Starmer, and others has rightfully drawn criticism. Their refusal to hold Israel accountable, the continued sale of arms, and their rhetoric about Israel’s “right to defend itself” have shown a deep hypocrisy. Biden could have demanded an end to hostilities in October 2023: why did he wait until his final days in office before engaging in any form of meaningful action? The rights of Palestinians have been consistently ignored, as have their pleas for justice and the indifference shown by these leaders during Gaza’s livestreamed genocide will become a moral indictment that history will not forgive, or forget. And nor should it.

In the future, political leaders will be haunted by these questions: where were you when Gaza was subjected to genocide? Why did you enable mass suffering rather than working to end it? The complicity of Western governments in this tragedy will be a stain on their legacies, as will events such as the standing ovation for Netanyahu in the U.S. Congress – a moment that epitomised the moral failure of the global political establishment: Gaza was being destroyed, yet the man who inflicted this reign of terror upon the peoples of Palestine was applauded and encouraged to go even further. How can this ever be forgiven?

Palestine faces a long road to recovery, but there is no doubt that it will recover, as it always does and irrespective of how long it takes. But the moral and reputational damage to the West and its many leaders who supported Israel is this way, is unrepairable. The conflict has exposed not only the brutality of Israeli policies but also the structural failures of an international community unwilling or unable to uphold its own standards. And it may never recover from these failures.