Labor triumphs in Dunkley

A reflection of Australia’s political pulse and a defining moment for future campaigns.

Within the ever-fluctuating political landscapes and the continuous emergence of national issues, the Dunkley by-election was not merely a critical local electoral contest in outer Melbourne but also served as a barometer for broader political sentiment across Australia. Despite pre-election polls indicating a tight race between the major political parties, the Labor Party’s victory in the Dunkley by-election by Jodie Belyea offers a multifaceted lens through which to analyze current political dynamics, the effectiveness of the parties’ strategies, and the electorate’s response to both local and national issues.

At the heart of pre-election discussions were the Essential and Newspoll surveys—not specific to the Dunkley area but reflective of the overall electorate—which painted a picture of a potentially close contest. The Essential poll indicated a narrow lead for the Coalition, marking the first time it had edged ahead of the Labor government since the 2022 federal election, with figures of 48 percent for the Coalition and 47 percent for Labor in Essential’s version of two-party preferred voting (Essential excludes undecided voters). However, the Newspoll results remained unchanged, showing a lead for Labor at 52 percent, compared to the Coalition’s 48 percent. These conflicting signals underscored the unpredictable nature of voter sentiment and the potential for the Dunkley by-election to swing in any direction.

The analysis prior to the election highlighted the impact that national issues often have on by-elections, suggesting that the outcome could reflect broader national sentiments rather than purely local concerns. This dynamic was further complicated by the sad passing of the former member for Dunkley, Labor’s Peta Murphy, which introduced an element of emotional complexity to the electoral narrative. Speculation about a sympathy vote in favour of Labor to honour Murphy’s legacy added another layer to the pre-election analysis.

Labor’s eventual victory in Dunkley—52.6 percent of the vote, against the 47.4 percent recorded by the Liberal Party—despite the political challenges that it faced, signifies more than just a retention of their current number of 78 seats in the House of Representatives. It represents a validation of Labor’s policies and political strategy in a contentious environment—not only was Labor facing a negative and hostile Liberal Party, but it was up against a negative, hostile and febrile conservative media landscape.

The victory also offers somewhat of a reprieve to the Albanese government, which had been portrayed as potentially becoming even more cautious in the face of an electoral loss. The outcome suggests that, despite the tight race and the swirling national issues, the electorate in Dunkley favoured continuity and endorsed the Labor Party’s direction.

The Dunkley by-election served as a referendum on several key issues, mainly Labor’s economic measures such as reworking the Stage 3 tax cuts, and the government’s general competence since it assumed office in May 2022. The electorate’s response, therefore, provides critical insights into the political priorities and concerns of the voters, particularly in terms of how these national issues influenced their decision-making at the ballot box.

The Labor Party’s victory in the Dunkley by-election is a testament to the complex interplay of local sentiments, national issues, and the effectiveness of political strategies. This result not only reinforces the Labor Party’s position within the Australian political landscape but also offers crucial lessons for both major parties as they recalibrate their approaches in anticipation of future electoral contests.

The Labor Party ran a very clear and effective campaign, despite the 3.9 percent swing against it in two-party preferred voting—Peta Murphy won the seat with a 6.3 percent margin at the 2022 federal election. While the two-party preferred vote is the measure that decides which candidate wins the seat, several factors were in play: Labor’s primary vote actually increased; the Liberal Party’s primary vote increased substantially, primarily due to the absence of the United Australia Party and One Nation; and the Australian Greens’ primary vote plummeted from 10.3 percent to 6.2 percent.

Yet another failure for the Liberal Party

Regardless of how the media attempts to misrepresent the outcome—depicting it as a failure for the Labor government, despite their victory, and portraying it as some sort of triumph for the Liberal Party, despite their defeat—it was undeniably a significant loss for the opposition leader, Peter Dutton.

The by-election experienced a modest two-party swing against the government, which is within the typical range for such electoral contests. This result has led political analysts to question the effectiveness of the opposition’s campaign strategies and their failure to capitalise on prevailing voter sentiments. The issue of cost of living, a topic heavily emphasised by the media since Labor’s rise to power in May 2022, did not sway the electorate in Dunkley, an outer suburban seat crucial for the Liberal Party’s efforts to bolster its position in anticipation of the 2025 general elections.

The Liberal Party, despite failing to make inroads into Labor’s primary vote share, did witness a notable increase in their primary vote, rising by 6.8 percent to 39.3 percent, yet it still lagged behind Labor’s primary vote of 41.1 percent. This increase occurred in the absence of candidates from One Nation and the United Australia Party, allowing the Liberals to reclaim a significant portion of their base. Nevertheless, their inability to diminish Labor’s primary vote highlights a significant challenge for the party, pointing to the electorate’s desire for more than just traditional party loyalties.

The Prime Minister’s strategic revision of the Stage 3 tax cuts, aimed at providing greater financial relief to the majority of taxpayers by July 1, was well-received by the electorate. This policy shift, markedly different from the original proposals under Stage 3, was perceived as a tactical strategy to align government policy with the economic interests of the general public.

The outcome of the Dunkley by-election will amplify scrutiny on Dutton’s leadership, particularly given the Liberal Party’s electoral dynamics in Victoria. The party’s internal discussions about the leadership of John Pesutto and the ongoing search for a new leader underscore the broader challenges the Liberals face in reasserting their electoral appeal within the state. If the Liberal Party cannot leverage 13 consecutive interest rate rises and cost of living pressures, and go to win a seat that a half-competent opposition party normally would, there have to be questions arising regarding the usefulness of Peter Dutton’s leadership.

Dutton’s predominantly negative campaign approach, underscored by deputy leader Sussan Ley’s controversial comments on public safety and immigration—where she stated, "if you do not want to see Australian women being assaulted by foreign criminals, vote against Labor"—failed to resonate with voters. This highlights a critical disconnect between the party’s messaging and the electorate’s expectations. Such tactics not only proved ineffective but also further alienated potential supporters, indicating a pressing need for the Liberal Party to reassess its strategic direction and adopt a more positive, forward-looking agenda.

Should we end by-elections?

In the aftermath of the Dunkley by-election, broader questions emerged regarding the mechanics of Australian democracy, particularly the role and process of by-elections. This victory, while reaffirming Labor’s position in Parliament, also serves as an opportunity to reflect on the logistical and constitutional aspects of electoral processes in Australia, including debates on the necessity and cost of by-elections.

The current process for filling Senate vacancies, seen as a time and cost-saving measure, contrasts with the more expensive and logistically demanding process of conducting by-elections for the House of Representatives. The cost to taxpayers, ranging between $2 million and $5 million for a lower house by-election, though not massive, is still a significant consideration in discussions on electoral reform.

The suggestion to potentially eliminate by-elections and instead allow for a replacement mechanism, either through party selection or by elevating the second-place candidate, introduces a complex debate intertwined with constitutional requirements. Such a change would necessitate amending Section 24 of the Australian Constitution, which emphasises that members of Parliament must be “chosen by the people of the Commonwealth”. Given Australia’s historical reluctance toward constitutional amendments, this proposal faces a steep uphill battle.

The rarity of by-elections—with Dunkley being only the third in the current term—coupled with their potential to significantly alter the political landscape, underscores the importance of maintaining a mechanism that allows for direct voter input in representative changes. The possibility of by-elections to shift government control is a critical aspect of the democratic process, providing a direct avenue for public accountability and influence over the government’s composition.

The debate over the necessity and format of by-elections is not merely administrative but touches on fundamental principles of democratic representation and governance. While the logistical challenges and costs associated with by-elections are valid concerns, the broader implications for democratic engagement and accountability must be the guiding factors in any discussion on electoral reform.

However, the future of by-elections can be discussed at a future point—it’s unlikely to change, given the electorate’s cynicism about any changes to the Constitution and the likelihood that the Coalition would oppose such changes, even if it might be to their own advantage.

The more immediate concern is the Labor Party’s victory in the Dunkley by-election and its reflection of the broader political currents shaping Australian politics. The electorate’s response underscores a desire for substantive policy discussions and a departure from negative campaigning, setting the stage for a potentially transformative period in the lead-up to the 2025 general elections.

The Labor Party won this by-election because they ran a positive campaign, focusing on issues that governments can address to improve people’s lives. The Liberal Party lost this by-election because they ran a negative campaign, terrorised the electorate, and failed to make a case for change. Until the Liberal Party starts to recognise this formula for electoral success, they will continue to lose election after election. If only they could see what is so obviously evident to everyone else.