Speculation grows over prospects of a minority government

The possibility of minority government should be viewed not as a disruption but an opportunity for a more effective approach to governance.

There is mounting speculation that the next federal election, scheduled for May 2025, could result in a minority government, and this speculation has gained some traction from statements put out by former independent member for New England, Tony Windsor, who suggested it’s a strong possibility because of the prominence of good quality independent members of parliament, and a belief that the major political parties are being bogged down in “incremental fear”.

Windsor’s assertion is based on the trend over recent elections, where a growing number of independent candidates have been making inroads, securing the favour of voters who are disillusioned with the major parties’ polarisation and constant politicking – this shift in voter sentiment suggests that a minority government is not only plausible but increasingly likely.

In examining the political landscape, it is crucial to consider the historical context: Australian political history reveals that first-time governments often encounter electoral difficulties during their first term, a pattern seen in the experiences of the Whitlam, Hawke, Howard, and the Rudd/Gillard and Abbott/Turnbull administrations.

One key factor contributing to the prospect of a minority government is the presence of a diverse crossbench in the federal Parliament – currently, there are 17 members on the crossbench, representing a variety of independent and minor parties. These crossbenchers – if they can eventually hold the balance of power after the next election – can wield high influence and play crucial roles in determining the direction of government policy, and it is also their presence that puts the Liberal–National Coalition at a significant disadvantage in securing a majority at the next election.