The end of the Liberal Party in Australia

It’s not dramatic to suggest the end of the Liberal Party. But if it doesn’t make major reforms, this prediction may end up being correct.

The turmoil within the federal Liberal Party, particularly in the state of Tasmania, has highlighted deep-rooted issues that have been plaguing the party for some time. The continuing political crisis in Tasmania – the only jurisdiction where the Liberal Party is in office – where the government has teetered on the brink of collapse, provides a stark example of these problems.

The catalyst for the crisis in Tasmania was the announcement by Attorney–General Elise Archer that she would resign from Parliament. However, this decision was soon reversed, leading to a standoff with the Premier of Tasmania, Jeremy Rockliff, who threatened to call an early election if Archer did not leave parliament. The situation was further complicated by allegations of bullying and workplace harassment against Archer, which prompted calls for her resignation from the Cabinet in the first place.

The Tasmanian government’s instability can be traced back to the resignation of former Premier Peter Gutwein in early 2022 where, after his departure, several Liberal Party MPs resigned to become independents, undermining the government’s stability. This crisis has had detrimental effects on democracy and good governance in Tasmania, and it threatens to persist until the next election, which is not due until mid-2025.

However, it’s essential to acknowledge that the Premier of Tasmania, in this case, followed correct parliamentary procedure by considering an early election when facing potential supply issues and unlike some leaders who might have tried to brazen it out, he chose a democratic path: perhaps he didn’t have any option but it should still be commended. Nevertheless, the Liberal Party’s problems in Tasmania have far-reaching implications beyond the state itself.

The crisis in Tasmania has raised questions about the broader health of the Liberal Party in Australia. While it’s commendable that the Premier followed parliamentary protocol, the party’s internal divisions and instability cannot be ignored.

The potential outcomes of the Tasmanian crisis have attracted the attention of Liberal Party leaders in other states. A victory in a snap election – and a subsequent victory, if it came to that – would undoubtedly inject vitality into the party. However, the prospects of a Liberal Party victory in Tasmania appear uncertain, given the government’s troubled track record over recent times. If a snap election is called and the Liberal Party fails to secure victory, it would signify the domination of Labor governments at state, territory and federal levels, further weakening the Liberal Party’s influence in Australian politics.

The crisis in Tasmania not only reflects a lack of stability within the Liberal Party but also sheds light on fundamental leadership and representation issues. One key factor contributing to the turmoil is the limited number of MPs in the Tasmanian Parliament. With only 40 members in total, including both houses, and a party room of just 14 members, there is little room for political options, and this scarcity of options amplifies the consequences of falling out or having political differences with key members of cabinet.

Moreover, the current lower house, with 25 MPs, is set to increase to 35 MPs at the next election. This change was initially implemented in 1998 to prevent the Tasmanian Greens from gaining control of Parliament; however, it now highlights the inadequacy of the representation system, as Tasmania’s population and political landscape have evolved over the past 25 years.

This situation serves as a lesson in politics: short-term gains may not be the best course of action and can have lasting repercussions. Tasmania’s underrepresentation in its own parliament has resulted in leadership challenges and instability. It’s a reminder that actions taken decades ago can resurface to impact the political landscape negatively.

Ramifications for the federal Liberal Party

This upheaval and instability in Tasmania, not only spells trouble for the state but also carries significant ramifications for the federal Liberal Party and raises the spectre of the possible decline and ultimate demise of the Liberal Party, not just in Tasmania, but across the entire country.

The last time Australia experienced a situation where there was no Liberal federal, state or territory government was in 2008 and, at that time, predictions of the Liberal Party’s demise were rampant. However, the party managed to stage a remarkable comeback, regaining power in Western Australia in 2008, Victoria in 2010, New South Wales in 2011, and finally, at the federal level in 2013. This historical context demonstrates that it is unwise to write off any political party entirely.

Yet, as we approach 2023, the political landscape appears markedly different to 2008 and there are several factors which contribute to this shift. Firstly, there are notable demographic changes, with less support for the two main parties (Liberal/National Coalition and Labor) and an increase in the number of independents. Additionally, there’s a new wave of teal independents who have managed to wrestle away seats that were traditionally held by the Liberal Party.

The next realistic opportunity for a Liberal Party state government is in Queensland, where electors go to the polls in October 2024, and there’s also a small chance for the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory election in 2024. However, beyond these prospects, the outlook for the Liberal Party seems bleak. The ongoing chaos in Tasmania, which is the last remaining Liberal state government, is not a favourable sign for the party as a whole.

Moreover, Australia’s electorate is rapidly changing, both demographically and ideologically. The political party that can adapt to these changes effectively is the one likely to succeed in the future but the current state of the Liberal Party does not seem well-suited to harness these shifts in voter sentiment.

This situation draws parallels with the critical juncture faced by conservative politics in 1943, which faced a similar situation through the United Australia Party, and it was in dire straits. Robert Menzies, who had previously failed as Prime Minister, was facing allegations of being too close to big business and corruption within the UAP. In response, Menzies and a group of others founded the Liberal Party in 1944, radically reforming the party’s structure and rethinking the selection of candidates. The Liberal Party went on to win the 1949 election and stayed in power for 23 years, largely due to the competency of its first-term cabinet, matched only by Bob Hawke’s first cabinet in 1983.

The current crisis within the Liberal Party mirrors this historical precedent. It is a party facing disarray, in desperate need of structural reform and a re-evaluation of its core principles and values. Its current federal leader, Peter Dutton, is not the person to take on this task and the party’s closeness to big business, corruption, and a lack of understanding of the evolving electorate’s concerns have led it astray.

While history has shown that political parties can rebound from adversity, the Liberal Party must evolve to remain relevant in a changing Australia. It is no longer enough to be agents of chaos; the party needs to engage in genuine policy work based on a well-thought-out political philosophy to regain the trust of the electorate and secure its place in Australian politics. Failure to do so may indeed lead to the end of the Liberal Party’s relevance and existence in Australian politics.

A failure to change: can the Liberal Party survive in its current form?

While it’s an unlikely prospect, it’s not overly dramatic to suggest the demise of the Liberal Party, although even if this does end up being the case, conservative voters will still always exist and will wish to vote for a centre-right party that represent their views. These voters will always seek representation, but the onus is on conservative political parties to adapt to the changing political and electoral landscape and it is not realistic to expect them to suddenly shift allegiance to left-leaning or centre-left parties such as the Australian Greens or the Labor Party. In a democratic system such as the Australian model, there will always be a need for conservative parties. However, they must evolve to remain relevant to those communities they wish to represent.

At present, it seems that the Liberal Party is content with espousing right-wing conservative views and issues, as seen in their stance on issues such as the Voice to Parliament and the insistence on continuing the futile “culture wars”, where they hope to gain political traction and success by attacking fringe and marginal issues that don’t really matter to too many people. This approach may resonate with a segment of their traditional base – which appears to be diminishing – but it fails to engage with the broader electorate’s contemporary concerns and sentiments.

Fundamental change is necessary for the Liberal Party to achieve political success in the future and the party must undergo a transformation in terms of its composition and ideology. This transformation will undoubtedly be their most significant challenge.

Purging a political party is never a straightforward or pleasant process and it can take a substantial amount of time and effort. However, when it becomes necessary, it must be undertaken to ensure the party’s relevance and responsiveness to the electorate. While the Labor Party also require reforms to remain significant now and into the future, the Liberal Party appears to be in more urgent need of change.

In a healthy democracy like Australia’s, non-Labor voters should have a viable political option. Robust debate and representation of diverse viewpoints are essential for a functioning democracy. It is crucial to respect the democratic process, even when one disagrees with the choices made by fellow citizens.

Australia is, at its core, a centrist country. While there will always be various ideological perspectives on the fringe, the majority of the population tends towards the centre. Political parties should reflect this centrist sentiment and then allow for ideological nuance and debate within those parameters.

The current trajectory of the Liberal Party, attempting to steer towards the far-right, may yield minor successes, but it is ultimately unsustainable. The Australian populace does not align with far-right ideologies and to remain viable, the Liberal Party must reposition itself closer to the centre, engaging with the changing demographic and ideological landscape of the country. It is a party at a crossroads, requiring significant reform and adaptation to meet the evolving needs and preferences of the electorate. And, at present, it seems that it is unwilling make these significant changes.