How Trump could accelerate a great American decline

As the 2024 election looms, it’s difficult not to view this moment as a critical moment for American democracy.

As the final days of the 2024 U.S. presidential election unfold, the overwhelming surprise is not just that Donald Trump is still a candidate against Kamala Harris, but that he’s in a position where victory remains within his grasp. Given the litany of scandals, criminal convictions, and disastrous policies that have defined his political career, the expectation would be that Trump’s moment on the national stage had long passed. Yet, as he closes out this campaign, it’s abundantly clear that the deep structural and cultural fractures within the U.S. have kept him viable – perhaps even more so now than in 2016.

The fact that the race will likely be determined by voters in a handful of states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – highlights the precarious nature of this election. These states, which narrowly swung for Trump in 2016, seemed to have rejected his brand of politics in 2020, tipping the election towards Joe Biden. But 2024 presents a different reality: the country’s divisions have only deepened, and Trump’s opponents seem incapable of completely extinguishing the political wildfire he ignited. In some ways, Trump’s candidacy this time around feels even more farcical and comical, yet just as dangerous, as it did eight years ago.

The tragedy is that this isn’t new. In 2016, many dismissed his campaign antics as an elaborate act, a reality TV spectacle not to be taken seriously. When he won, there was a widespread assumption – perhaps a hope – that he would “transform” and assume the role of a conventional president. But Trump, true to his nature, never changed. His administration was marked by chaos, corruption, and the notorious culmination of his political career in the Capitol Hill insurrection of January 2021.

It’s essential to recognise the absurdity that underpins Trump’s continued presence in the race. A convicted felon, found liable for sexual abuse, accused of financial crimes and corruption – yet still here, on the verge of potentially reclaiming the White House. He has been called a fascist, a racist, and an opportunist, yet remains an ideal figure for many corporate and political elites who find his brand of authoritarianism convenient.

Trump’s rise and persistence signal more than just a rogue actor in the system; they point to a deep rot within the American political and media establishment. After eight years of his public spectacle – in office for four years and now again as a candidate – one would think the public had seen enough. But the bizarre reality is that a significant portion of the American electorate has either embraced or become desensitised to Trump’s vulgarity and malfeasance.

The 2024 electorate is certainly not the same as the one that reluctantly gave Trump a shot in 2016. By now, they know the man behind the persona. They know the failed policies, the lies, the undermining of democratic norms. They’ve witnessed his presidency and his post-presidency, filled with legal battles and public scandals. Yet here he is, still drawing massive crowds, still dominating headlines, still a potential threat to the American democratic experiment. His appeal isn’t as mysterious as it once was, but it remains shocking. This is not the “successful businessman” image that voters bought into in 2016. This is the man revealed – a corrupt, self-serving demagogue who, by all rational standards, should have been disqualified from public life long ago.

Political analyst Alan Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” model, which focuses on deeper electoral dynamics rather than the fleeting whims of polling, offers a glimpse into the underlying forces at play. Lichtman predicts a Harris victory, and his model has proven accurate in the past. But even his model, which factors in scandal, charisma, foreign policy, and the economy, cannot fully capture the chaos that Trump represents. Trump’s candidacy defies conventional political wisdom – he thrives in scandal, weaponises charisma, and turns chaos into a form of political currency. Whether it’s through his manipulation of the media, his ability to tap into underlying resentment, or simply his refusal to ever leave the stage, Trump has proven himself to be a master of disruption.

The 2024 election is not just a referendum on Trump, but on the entire system that enabled him. His return is a reminder of the fragility of American democracy and the lingering effects of his four years in office. Even if he loses, the forces that brought him to power are not going away. The bitter divisions, the sense of grievance, and the anti-democratic impulses he unleashed will continue to haunt the political landscape for years to come. The real surprise is not just that Trump is still here, but that the country has yet to find a way to fully repudiate him.

A broken political system and the uncertain future of U.S. democracy

Looking at the state of U.S. politics from a spectator’s perspective in Australia, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that something has been fundamentally broken for some time.

The deeply entrenched two-party system – dominated by Republicans and Democrats – has stifled any real political diversity or change. Unlike many other democratic systems, the U.S. seems structurally incapable of accommodating voices outside these two blocs, despite the nation’s frequent elections at all levels of government. From the presidency down to local roles like school board members or even dog catchers in Duxbury, Vermont, almost everything is decided by elections, yet for the highest office, the system seems neither fully free nor fair.

It’s paradoxical: the U.S. is flooded with elections, but meaningful political choice is increasingly limited. Voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the overwhelming influence of money in politics have turned the electoral process into a caricature of democracy. The lack of a viable third party – or even a credible independent movement – means the electorate is trapped in a binary choice that often feels like choosing between the lesser of two evils. This is where the American political system stands in contrast to other countries, including Australia.

In Australia, the two-party system, while still dominant, is showing signs of decay. There’s space for independent candidates and smaller parties such as the Australian Greens to gain traction, and even wield significant power in a parliamentary system. The rise of independents, especially in suburban and regional areas, reflects a growing disenchantment with the major parties and signals a potential realignment of political power.

This is something unimaginable in the U.S. Australian politics, for all its flaws, is evolving; it is slowly opening up space for alternatives, providing voters with a way to express their dissatisfaction beyond the binary choices offered by the major parties. But in the U.S., the two-party stranglehold feels immutable. Even efforts by candidates like Ralph Nader in 2000 or Jill Stein in 2024 to introduce alternatives are dismissed as spoilers rather than serious contenders.

What compounds the problem in the U.S. is the overwhelming power of lobby groups and corporate interests. The pharmaceutical industry, defence contractors, banking conglomerates, and influential lobbies like the National Rifle Association or the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have a stranglehold on policy-making. The presence of powerful lobby groups is a factor in many countries, but in the U.S., the influence seems particularly toxic.

As the 2024 election looms, it’s difficult not to view this moment as a critical moment for American democracy. The idea of Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate, facing off against Donald Trump feels like a referendum on whether the U.S. can survive its current political malaise.

Although Harris would create history as the first woman U.S. president, she currently holds a high unfavourable rating with electors (48 per cent), more than likely a legacy of the unfavourability of Joe Biden in the final months of his presidential term. But even her most ardent critics would likely agree that her presidency would represent a degree of normalcy compared to the likely disaster of a second Trump term.

Harris represents a continuation of the American political establishment, but one that still functions within the bounds of democratic norms. A Trump presidency, on the other hand, represents a threat to those very norms, and perhaps to the future of the U.S. as a functioning democracy.

The U.S. has survived mediocre and even corrupt presidents before, even Trump’s first term between 2016–20. But another Trump presidency at this stage would be catastrophic. The cracks in the American political system, visible for years, could deepen into full fractures. Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, his disregard for democratic institutions, and his ability to inflame racial and political tensions threaten to push the U.S. into uncharted territory. The very fabric of American society – already strained – might not survive another four years of Trump.

The demographics are changing, and Trump’s hold on power is weakening in certain areas. The Puerto Rican community, once a swing constituency in key states, now overwhelmingly opposes Trump, as do younger voters and a significant portion of voters of colour. These shifts give Harris an advantage, one that might be stronger than the polls suggest. Yet, polls in the past have shown their limits, particularly in 2016, when Trump’s victory shocked the world, after Hilary Clinton was strongly expected to win – and actually won the popular vote comprehensively – but narrowly lost the three states that are critical in this election, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. While there is a growing sense that Harris will secure a victory, there remains a real fear that Trump, through his usual brand of chaos and exploitation of the system’s weaknesses, could once again defy the odds.

What is clear, though, is that U.S. politics, as it currently stands, is in trouble. The country is mired in division, and its political system seems ill-equipped to offer real solutions. Whether it’s Harris or Trump who emerges victorious, the deeper issues – corporate control, a broken electoral system, and a deeply divided populace – are not going away. The challenge for the next president will be not just to govern, but to find a way to repair the damage done to the country’s political and social fabric. Whether America has the capacity to do that, or whether it is too far gone, is the important question that will only be answered over time.

How will the 2024 election reshape global power and Australia’s future?

For all its might and influence, the U.S. today mirrors the slow disintegration of past empires (or de facto empires), stubbornly clinging to a self-image of global leadership while the ground shifts beneath it. History is filled with lessons from the collapse of once-mighty civilisations – the Roman Empire, the Austro–Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the Soviet Union – all of which failed to adapt, overextended themselves, or were brought down by a mix of hubris, corruption, and internal decay. The U.S. seems to be following the same script.

If he wins the 2024 election, Trump, with his bluster and incompetence, may well be the figurehead of this American decline. His lack of intellectual depth, his inability to navigate the complexities of global power shifts, and his blatant disregard for the changing world order make him a uniquely destructive force. The rise of China and India, the growing influence of the BRICS movement, have all occurred under the watch of U.S. leaders who seem more concerned with maintaining the illusion of dominance than engaging with the realities of the 21st century.

In the face of rising global powers like China, which is expanding its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative and consolidating its economic and military power, or India, which is positioning itself as a major player in both regional and global affairs, Trump has shown himself incapable of offering anything other than bombast. His approach to foreign policy is guided by ego and opportunism rather than strategy or vision, and this has accelerated America’s retreat from its role as a global leader.

The BRICS movement, in particular, is one of the clearest signs of the U.S.’s waning influence. Once a loose coalition of emerging economies, BRICS is now positioning itself as a serious alternative to Western-dominated financial and political institutions. The rise of BRICS signals a shift in global power dynamics, as these countries seek to challenge the U.S.-led order by creating new economic alliances and institutions that bypass American influence. Trump, with his simplistic view of international relations, did nothing to address this challenge. If anything, his erratic policies and disdain for multilateralism during his presidency set up the platform for the acceleration of the U.S. decline, leaving space for other powers to fill the void.

One of the most glaring examples of the U.S.’s moral and diplomatic decline is its failure to address the ongoing crisis in Palestine. The U.S.’s blind support for Israel, even in the face of increasing evidence of human rights violations and genocide against Palestinians, has eroded its credibility as a defender of democracy and human rights. Under Trump, this moral blindness became more pronounced, as he moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and tacitly supported the annexation of Palestinian territories. The U.S. has lost its moral high ground on this issue, and with it, much of its influence in the Middle East and beyond. The same is true regarding the situation in Lebanon, where U.S. disengagement has left a vacuum that others, including Hezbollah and Iranian-backed forces, have quickly filled.

Whether it’s a Harris or a Trump presidency, the trajectory of decline seems inevitable, though the speed and severity may differ. Harris, while certainly more competent and aligned with traditional American diplomacy, is still working within a system that is unraveling. The structures of American power – its military-industrial complex, its reliance on corporate lobbyists, its fractured political system – are too deeply entrenched to allow for any meaningful reform in the short term. Trump, on the other hand, represents an acceleration of the decline. His brand of chaotic leadership, combined with the rise of far-right forces like the Conservative Project 2025, could lead to a rapid unraveling of U.S. institutions and international alliances.

For Australia, the outcome of this U.S. election will have significant consequences. Under Trump, the U.S. may retreat even further from its commitments to global alliances, leaving Australia exposed. The AUKUS agreement could become a casualty of Trump’s disinterest in international cooperation. The agreement, already controversial and costly for Australia, could be rendered irrelevant if Trump decides to pull back from the region or shifts his focus to domestic issues. Australia has already paid a steep price for AUKUS, both financially and diplomatically, as it strained relations with France after cancelling a lucrative submarine deal in favour of the British and U.S. partnership. If Trump loses interest, Australia could find itself isolated, having sacrificed valuable partnerships for an alliance that no longer exists.

A Harris presidency might offer more stability, but even then, Australia will have to navigate a world where U.S. influence, while it still is powerful, is waning. Australia has long relied on the U.S. as a security guarantor and a key economic partner, but as the U.S. declines, Australia may need to rethink its strategic alliances. The rise of China, both as a regional power and a global economic force, presents a complex challenge. Australia’s economic ties to China are deep, but its security alignment with the U.S. creates a tension that will only grow as these two powers continue to clash. A Harris administration might offer more predictability, but it will not change the fundamental reality that the U.S. is no longer the dominant global force it once was.

Whatever the result of the 2024 election is, the U.S. is likely continue its slow decline as a world power, and countries like Australia will need to navigate this new reality with caution, forging new alliances and rethinking old assumptions. The age of unquestioned American dominance is over, and the world is already shifting in ways that will shape the future for decades to come.