The Monday essay: How Trump could accelerate a great American decline

As the 2024 election looms, it’s difficult not to view this moment as a critical moment for American democracy.

As the final days of the 2024 U.S. presidential election unfold, the overwhelming surprise is not just that Donald Trump is still a candidate against Kamala Harris, but that he’s in a position where victory remains within his grasp. Given the litany of scandals, criminal convictions, and disastrous policies that have defined his political career, the expectation would be that Trump’s moment on the national stage had long passed. Yet, as he closes out this campaign, it’s abundantly clear that the deep structural and cultural fractures within the U.S. have kept him viable – perhaps even more so now than in 2016.

The fact that the race will likely be determined by voters in a handful of states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – highlights the precarious nature of this election. These states, which narrowly swung for Trump in 2016, seemed to have rejected his brand of politics in 2020, tipping the election towards Joe Biden. But 2024 presents a different reality: the country’s divisions have only deepened, and Trump’s opponents seem incapable of completely extinguishing the political wildfire he ignited. In some ways, Trump’s candidacy this time around feels even more farcical and comical, yet just as dangerous, as it did eight years ago.

The tragedy is that this isn’t new. In 2016, many dismissed his campaign antics as an elaborate act, a reality TV spectacle not to be taken seriously. When he won, there was a widespread assumption – perhaps a hope – that he would “transform” and assume the role of a conventional president. But Trump, true to his nature, never changed. His administration was marked by chaos, corruption, and the notorious culmination of his political career in the Capitol Hill insurrection of January 2021.

It’s essential to recognise the absurdity that underpins Trump’s continued presence in the race. A convicted felon, found liable for sexual abuse, accused of financial crimes and corruption – yet still here, on the verge of potentially reclaiming the White House. He has been called a fascist, a racist, and an opportunist, yet remains an ideal figure for many corporate and political elites who find his brand of authoritarianism convenient.

Trump’s rise and persistence signal more than just a rogue actor in the system; they point to a deep rot within the American political and media establishment. After eight years of his public spectacle – in office for four years and now again as a candidate – one would think the public had seen enough. But the bizarre reality is that a significant portion of the American electorate has either embraced or become desensitised to Trump’s vulgarity and malfeasance.

The 2024 electorate is certainly not the same as the one that reluctantly gave Trump a shot in 2016. By now, they know the man behind the persona. They know the failed policies, the lies, the undermining of democratic norms. They’ve witnessed his presidency and his post-presidency, filled with legal battles and public scandals. Yet here he is, still drawing massive crowds, still dominating headlines, still a potential threat to the American democratic experiment. His appeal isn’t as mysterious as it once was, but it remains shocking. This is not the “successful businessman” image that voters bought into in 2016. This is the man revealed – a corrupt, self-serving demagogue who, by all rational standards, should have been disqualified from public life long ago.

Political analyst Alan Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” model, which focuses on deeper electoral dynamics rather than the fleeting whims of polling, offers a glimpse into the underlying forces at play. Lichtman predicts a Harris victory, and his model has proven accurate in the past. But even his model, which factors in scandal, charisma, foreign policy, and the economy, cannot fully capture the chaos that Trump represents. Trump’s candidacy defies conventional political wisdom – he thrives in scandal, weaponises charisma, and turns chaos into a form of political currency. Whether it’s through his manipulation of the media, his ability to tap into underlying resentment, or simply his refusal to ever leave the stage, Trump has proven himself to be a master of disruption.

The 2024 election is not just a referendum on Trump, but on the entire system that enabled him. His return is a reminder of the fragility of American democracy and the lingering effects of his four years in office. Even if he loses, the forces that brought him to power are not going away. The bitter divisions, the sense of grievance, and the anti-democratic impulses he unleashed will continue to haunt the political landscape for years to come. The real surprise is not just that Trump is still here, but that the country has yet to find a way to fully repudiate him.

A broken political system and the uncertain future of U.S. democracy

Looking at the state of U.S. politics from a spectator’s perspective in Australia, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that something has been fundamentally broken for some time.