Trump’s assassination attempt and Biden’s withdrawal: The surreal state of American politics

This 2014 US election will determine whether the US can navigate this tumultuous period and emerge with its democratic institutions intact.

The recent attempted assassination of US Presidential candidate Donald Trump during a public rally is a reminder of the unpredictable and often surreal nature of contemporary American politics. In a country where bizarre and shocking events are becoming almost routine, this incident still managed to stand out due to its sheer audacity and the subsequent controversies it has sparked – the shooter, positioned on a rooftop in clear view of the rally attendees, initiated a sequence of events that felt more like a scene from a Hollywood thriller than real life, and the Secret Service’s inept response and the overall security lapse have drawn intense scrutiny and debate.

After the assassin was killed by Secret Services, the scene escalated dramatically, with Trump appearing as a defiant, bloodstained figure, pumping his fist before being hurried off stage. This image alone has fueled a wave of speculation and conspiracy theories, with many questioning the authenticity of the event and it is this scepticism that highlights the deeply polarised and distrustful state of American politics.

Trump’s reaction to the incident, notably his decision to make a public show of defiance immediately afterward, aligns with his known penchant for dramatic and often reckless behaviour. Comparing this incident to the 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan highlights the differences in security responses – Reagan was swiftly shielded and removed from danger without theatrics, whereas Trump’s response was more visibly chaotic and less controlled.

The broader implications of this event are significant. It highlights the deteriorating trust in political narratives and the increasing tendency of the public to question official accounts. However, it is Trump’s history of public deceit since his 2015 campaign that complicates the public’s ability to discern truth from fabrication and this erosion of trust in the political system is symptomatic of a deeper malaise affecting American democracy.

Adding to this complexity is President Joe Biden’s unexpected decision to withdraw from the 2024 election campaign, and this development introduces a new layer of uncertainty and speculation into an already volatile political climate. While he will remain President until January 2025, Biden’s withdrawal is a pragmatic response to his poor political campaign performance and the growing turmoil and polarisation, and a strategic move within a broader, more convoluted game of political chess being played out by the Democrats.

Within the context of these extraordinary events, the challenges of restoring trust and ensuring effective governance in the United States become ever more daunting, and these factors set the stage for a deeply contentious and unpredictable political future, not just for America, but the international community as well.

The political spectacle and the ramifications

In the days following the attempt, Trump made a dramatic and extravagant appearance at the Republican convention, sporting a conspicuous bandage on his ear, serving as a poignant reminder of the attempt on his life, ensuring the event remained fresh in the minds of the public and reinforcing his narrative of victimhood.

Trump’s fist-pumping moment, captured with blood on his face against the backdrop of the American flag, was a masterclass in political theatre. The Secret Service’s pause on the stage seemed to allow photographers to frame the perfect shot leading to many people believing the incident was choreographed but whatever the case, the image evoked a powerful response from Trump, in his attempt to solidify his media persona as a defiant patriot who narrowly escaped death.

In politics, such moments are invaluable and it’s obvious that a political party – especially a US Republican party – will exploit the circumstances for political gain. The comparisons to the Reichstag fire of 1933, where the Nazis exploited the event to consolidate power by blaming their opponents, are not far-fetched. MAGA Republicans quickly pointed fingers at Biden and the Democrats for responsibility for this attack, despite the shooter being a registered Republican. The truth of the attack’s origins and the intentions behind it became secondary to the narrative that Trump was a survivor of an assassination attempt and this narrative alone was potent enough to galvanise his base supporters and frame the election campaign narrative.

For Trump’s base, this incident reinforced their loyalty, portraying him as a martyr under siege. Conversely, the Democratic base, already fragmented and uncertain, was thrown into further disarray, until the moment that Biden withdrew his nomination. The incident didn’t seem to sway undecided voters or shift the polls significantly, although it may be too early to see how the voting patterns will be affected by this event. Unlike more mainstream candidates, Trump’s support base is deeply entrenched, driven by a mix of admiration and revulsion that leaves little room for neutrality.

The announcement of JD Vance as Trump’s vice-presidential pick the day after the assassination attempt was a strange move, one fraught with risk, considering that he is an even more polarising and ideologically-driven candidate than Trump, despised by both Republicans and Democrats. This choice might parallel Sarah Palin’s selection by John McCain in 2008 – a move that initially energised the base but ultimately alienated broader support. This choice could also deter swing voters and those disenchanted with Trump’s antics, potentially weakening his position despite the initial rallying effect of the assassination attempt.