Well made observations. It seems clear to me that the Libs/Nats (together or seperately) have not spent their time in opposition buried in the back room devising real nation building policies or any strategy to approach this election. Remember they could not even register their candidates for the council elections on Sydney's North Shore . I am sure PD is driving the approach centered around himself and the tiresome and enfeebling adversarial name calling and one-upmanship. I am hopeful that there is a real trend by the averagely informed Australian to see through this wasteful political engagement and vote accordingly.
Very good summary of a week which has been so fragmented by US politics; you've woven it together so coherently. You are so right about PD not being Donald Trump, he's no showman, and doesn't have the hutzpah. Also your point about Australians being very different from Americans, very true and almost comforting at this point. We're on a wild ride now.
How could they be so unprepared? This is the party that failed to nominate candidates for local council elections not long ago. This is the party that relies on thought bubbles and misinformation as policies. Unprepared is their ethos.
I'm curious about the effect of Dutton's seat (Dickson) being so vulnerable. He didn't become party leader till after the 2022 election, so was wondering if being opposition leader or (possibly) PM has much effect.
other candidates are Ali France (ALP) and Ellie Smith (IND).
The general rule is that being leader of the party gets you a 3-5% boost. Kim Beazley for example took Swan from a marginal to a safe seat. Billy McMahon took Strathfield into safe seat territory too. John Howard was an anomaly in that he lost his seat but that was for particular local reasons - he’d made some comments about Chinese immigration and Bennelong had a significant Chinese community. Generally Bennelong should have been a swing seat but he made it safe. Tony Abbott lost his seat (which he’d frittered away anyway) after losing the leadership.
Dutton may well have kept the seat in Liberal hands but it’s pretty clear he hasn’t really gotten the support that other party leaders get. He was always a strange choice to lead - we all thought he was a stopgap till they found someone better for the election. Of course the current party is bereft of people with public appeal which probably worked in Duttons favour.
I suspect that Dutton may scrape back in if the progressive vote splits. But he has to continually work in his community rather than flit off to be leader of the opposition. Except as we know he went to Sydney during cyclone Alfred. This may have killed his political career. The press has turned on him.
Well made observations. It seems clear to me that the Libs/Nats (together or seperately) have not spent their time in opposition buried in the back room devising real nation building policies or any strategy to approach this election. Remember they could not even register their candidates for the council elections on Sydney's North Shore . I am sure PD is driving the approach centered around himself and the tiresome and enfeebling adversarial name calling and one-upmanship. I am hopeful that there is a real trend by the averagely informed Australian to see through this wasteful political engagement and vote accordingly.
Very good summary of a week which has been so fragmented by US politics; you've woven it together so coherently. You are so right about PD not being Donald Trump, he's no showman, and doesn't have the hutzpah. Also your point about Australians being very different from Americans, very true and almost comforting at this point. We're on a wild ride now.
How could they be so unprepared? This is the party that failed to nominate candidates for local council elections not long ago. This is the party that relies on thought bubbles and misinformation as policies. Unprepared is their ethos.
I'm curious about the effect of Dutton's seat (Dickson) being so vulnerable. He didn't become party leader till after the 2022 election, so was wondering if being opposition leader or (possibly) PM has much effect.
other candidates are Ali France (ALP) and Ellie Smith (IND).
The general rule is that being leader of the party gets you a 3-5% boost. Kim Beazley for example took Swan from a marginal to a safe seat. Billy McMahon took Strathfield into safe seat territory too. John Howard was an anomaly in that he lost his seat but that was for particular local reasons - he’d made some comments about Chinese immigration and Bennelong had a significant Chinese community. Generally Bennelong should have been a swing seat but he made it safe. Tony Abbott lost his seat (which he’d frittered away anyway) after losing the leadership.
Dutton may well have kept the seat in Liberal hands but it’s pretty clear he hasn’t really gotten the support that other party leaders get. He was always a strange choice to lead - we all thought he was a stopgap till they found someone better for the election. Of course the current party is bereft of people with public appeal which probably worked in Duttons favour.
I suspect that Dutton may scrape back in if the progressive vote splits. But he has to continually work in his community rather than flit off to be leader of the opposition. Except as we know he went to Sydney during cyclone Alfred. This may have killed his political career. The press has turned on him.
But we’ll see.
DL.