The federal election campaign: what are we likely to see?

Voters want a return to more ambitious, values-driven government. But whether this government is prepared – or willing – to rise to that challenge remains uncertain.

The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has announced that Australia will go to the polls on May 3, with the federal election date confirmed after months of idle speculation promoted within the media – Albanese had always said that the parliament would go to the full term with an election to be held in May, and this is what has come to pass. If only the media has listened to him. The announcement follows a big week in politics, dominated by the release of the government’s Budget and the opposition’s Budget reply – and both of these events have fuelled more debate about tax cuts, the cost of living, and the broader direction of the country which, of course, will dovetail into the election campaign.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers essentially delivered a Budget which was aimed at stabilising the economy and offering modest cost-of-living relief. While the government has promised small tax cuts and highlighted improvements in inflation and wages, this Budget is more political than visionary, designed to support the government’s re-election rather than implementing bold reform. But hey, what’s new? What else could we expect in a Budget released just a few days before an election announcement? Chalmers has insisted that the Budget lays the groundwork for a stronger economy and a better future, but it does have a lack of ambition on issues such as corporate tax reform and environmental protections.

As to be expected for a pre-election Budget, there are sweeteners for voters but no radical changes. Major corporations, especially in the mining and gas sectors, continue to benefit from a slack tax regime, with little indication of any reform in the near future. The idea of taxing windfall profits from the minerals and resources that are owned by all of us – and a source of revenue for public investment – remains untouched, despite the calls from economists and community leaders for a more equitable system. These are not new ideas: the Henry Review from 2010 – commissioned by the then Labor government – contains all of these good reforms, if only someone from the government could be bothered to look for it.

The opposition’s Budget reply, delivered by Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton – with a supporting role from Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor – did very little to create any enthusiasm for any economic reform that might be in the public interest. They rejected the government’s tax cuts – an unusual political move so close to an election – arguing the measures were a “cruel hoax” and not enough to address Australia’s allegedly declining living standards. The Coalition instead proposed halving the fuel excise for a year, a populist measure that is likely to benefit oil companies more than consumers and reduce revenues for the government. Their broader policy platform remains vague, focusing on cutting public service jobs – the number of which continues to creep up: 36,000 last week, 41,000 this week – and pursuing nuclear energy, a proposal driven by mining magnate Gina Rinehart, and driven more by political theatre than any practical solutions.

Despite the government being a disappointment from a progressive perspective –environmental backsliding and new coal mines and gas fields, weak higher education reform, and its muted response to complete destruction of Gaza – the polls are continuing to favour the Labor government. Albanese’s leadership has always been presented and promoted as cautious – and while this caution has limited the amount of progressive change that has occurred during this parliamentary term, the prime minister never promised anything else but caution, and he has delivered on this in spades – and this appears to resonate with voters more than Dutton’s erratic and negative campaigning. Labor’s successes, such as lower inflation and wage growth, have been downplayed by the mainstream media and hasn’t been headline-grabbing but this offers a steady alternative to the Coalition’s volatile pitch. And at a time of global uncertainty and an increasingly chaotic and dysfunctional regime in the United States, this might be the main feature that the electorate is looking for.

Climate change, once a central theme of Labor’s 2022 campaign, has barely featured in 2025’s pre-election discussions, and is unlikely to feature very much during this campaign. The government’s mixed record on the environment and climate change – including opening new coal and gas projects and scrapping plans for the Environmental Protection Authority – has drawn fire from environmental groups and independents. Meanwhile, community independents and the Australian Greens have continued to raise issues such as environmental protection and mining royalties, pressuring both major parties to address long-ignored structural problems.

On international issues, Albanese’s invitation to US President Donald Trump is a strange choice, to say the least. While any visit – if it is taken up by Trump – is likely to be scheduled after the election, it sends an odd message at a time when many global leaders are distancing themselves from the US. On foreign affairs, the government has maintained support for Ukraine, but its silence on the humanitarian crisis in Palestine continues to attracted criticism from many progressives (aside from the PEPs – progressive except Palestine) and from within Labor ranks. Will Palestine become an issue during the election campaign? There might be an electoral effect in western Sydney and parts of outer Melbourne: it’s difficult to know at this stage – many Islamic communities are loyal to the Labor Party and won’t necessarily vote for an independent candidate just because they are from an Islamic background, such as Ziad Basyouny in the seat of Watson, but we just don’t know what type of effect the issue of Palestine will have in these areas.

Indigenous affairs, too, appear to be sidelined within the Budget and likely to be avoided during the election campaign – there’s just not enough votes in Indigenous issues for the mainstream parties and if there is to be any effect, it’s likely to be coming from the Liberal and National parties, who would be happy to use these issues as a political wedge, following on from their racist tactics that were used during the failed Voice to Parliament referendum in 2023.

With current polls leaning toward a narrow Labor victory or even a minority government supported by independents and the Greens, the election outcome could hinge on how effectively the government responds to calls for real reform. Many voters appear to be seeking a return to more ambitious, values-driven governance that are similar to those of past Labor reformers like Whitlam, Hawke, and Keating. But whether this government is prepared – or willing – to rise to that challenge remains uncertain.