If the Coalition parties are to govern again, they need to redefine who they are, who they represent, and how they can engage with the new and emerging forces in the Australian political landscape.
Interesting post and enjoyable to read, thanks. I think the politicians and voters of the two major political forces in Australia in recent times, the L/NP and Labor Party, themselves have always internally been coalitions of people with varying opinions, sometimes difficult to shepherd. For a long time there was nothing more democratically explosive in Australia than an ALP State conference, tomato throwing and all. Most Greens voters probably came from the Labor side originally but now their second preferences are split between ALP and L/NP. Their presence on the left of the ALP in the spectrum of opinion creates tension inside the ALP but also allows the ALP to position itself as a centrist force. The L/NP didn’t have this ability and one functional value of Clive Palmer’s noisy party du jour (United Australia last time, Trumpet of Patriots this time) and One Nation, regardless of their vote percentage was to create a (bogus?) perception that the L/NP is somewhat “moderate right”. The decision to split the Coalition makes this situation a reality - with the Nats being positioned to the right of the Libs - once the Libs policies shift back to the centre. That may not disadvantage Nats voters if the Nats vote as a bloc with the Libs on things that are vital to rural communities. It could, however, disadvantage any moneyed interests who were influencing Nats policies and through them the L/NP Coalition’s policies (and the Libs electability). The mystery factor in all this is the ex-Liberal teals, most of whom were returned in 2025. Will they rejoin a more centrist Liberal Party, form their own party (maybe on a new model), or continue as they are? (Good point by Michael’s Curious World.)
One of the reasons I feel the parties are dying is that both the ALP and the Liberals are prone to ego driven ambition at the cost of policy, discipline and what’s best for the country. It’s too early to state definitively of course but you’re right. That dominance gives the wrong people the wrong type of confidence. Hopefully the cooler heads will prevail.
On the liberal side the motivations are much different: this time it’s not dominance, but devastation. The right believes as they always do the the path of reconstruction lies in doing the same thing, only much more. Peter Dutton was a bit woke. Or at least he acted a bit woke. Less extreme figures are trying to work out what happened. But one thing is certain - Sussan Ley’s narrow victory did not guarantee her a safe or comfortable leadership. Sky News has already implied her leadership is finished. (How much of that is wishful thinking and how much is true is unclear). Given all this is happening in the context of her mother’s death says less about her personal circumstances and more about the awful people she has to deal with. Not that I think her a terribly outstanding politician. But loyalty to a new leader is key to rebuilding.
I do feel though that the parties are dying and a major reconstruction is coming. DL.
I think at the next election if things go normally the ALP will lose some seats, the Libs will gain some, the NATs will stay the same and the Independents might lose some seats to a more centrist Liberal Party.
Can't see the Lib-Nats being able to combine to form government though.
The issue of cabinet solidarity seems a red herring for the Libs and Nats though.
They're not in government. In Opposition, why couldn't the Libs an̈d Nats just agree to disagree on some issues, such as nuclear, while remaining in Coalition?
Appears Littleproud tried to force the Libs to agree to support Nats policies, as Dutton had done, but the Libs refused, knowing they would lose urban votes.
As an overseas voter, I don't see what's happening on the ground. But I have the impression that the lib/nats will be breaking up and making up until parliament resumes. Plenty of column inches to come. Is all publicity good publicity?
Interesting post and enjoyable to read, thanks. I think the politicians and voters of the two major political forces in Australia in recent times, the L/NP and Labor Party, themselves have always internally been coalitions of people with varying opinions, sometimes difficult to shepherd. For a long time there was nothing more democratically explosive in Australia than an ALP State conference, tomato throwing and all. Most Greens voters probably came from the Labor side originally but now their second preferences are split between ALP and L/NP. Their presence on the left of the ALP in the spectrum of opinion creates tension inside the ALP but also allows the ALP to position itself as a centrist force. The L/NP didn’t have this ability and one functional value of Clive Palmer’s noisy party du jour (United Australia last time, Trumpet of Patriots this time) and One Nation, regardless of their vote percentage was to create a (bogus?) perception that the L/NP is somewhat “moderate right”. The decision to split the Coalition makes this situation a reality - with the Nats being positioned to the right of the Libs - once the Libs policies shift back to the centre. That may not disadvantage Nats voters if the Nats vote as a bloc with the Libs on things that are vital to rural communities. It could, however, disadvantage any moneyed interests who were influencing Nats policies and through them the L/NP Coalition’s policies (and the Libs electability). The mystery factor in all this is the ex-Liberal teals, most of whom were returned in 2025. Will they rejoin a more centrist Liberal Party, form their own party (maybe on a new model), or continue as they are? (Good point by Michael’s Curious World.)
Can the Liberals move far enough back towards the centre to unite with the 'teal' Independents, who might once have been moderate Liberals?
Once Malcolm Turnbull was a moderate Liberal who became PM, but was then toppled by right-wingers like Dutton and opportunists like Morrison.
Just as Labor can co-operate with the Greens, can the Liberals co-operate with the Independents?
Seems a tough ask right now.
Biggest danger for Labor is dominance breeding complacency and egos exploding into infighting. How long will Chalmers be patient?
One of the reasons I feel the parties are dying is that both the ALP and the Liberals are prone to ego driven ambition at the cost of policy, discipline and what’s best for the country. It’s too early to state definitively of course but you’re right. That dominance gives the wrong people the wrong type of confidence. Hopefully the cooler heads will prevail.
On the liberal side the motivations are much different: this time it’s not dominance, but devastation. The right believes as they always do the the path of reconstruction lies in doing the same thing, only much more. Peter Dutton was a bit woke. Or at least he acted a bit woke. Less extreme figures are trying to work out what happened. But one thing is certain - Sussan Ley’s narrow victory did not guarantee her a safe or comfortable leadership. Sky News has already implied her leadership is finished. (How much of that is wishful thinking and how much is true is unclear). Given all this is happening in the context of her mother’s death says less about her personal circumstances and more about the awful people she has to deal with. Not that I think her a terribly outstanding politician. But loyalty to a new leader is key to rebuilding.
I do feel though that the parties are dying and a major reconstruction is coming. DL.
I think at the next election if things go normally the ALP will lose some seats, the Libs will gain some, the NATs will stay the same and the Independents might lose some seats to a more centrist Liberal Party.
Can't see the Lib-Nats being able to combine to form government though.
The issue of cabinet solidarity seems a red herring for the Libs and Nats though.
They're not in government. In Opposition, why couldn't the Libs an̈d Nats just agree to disagree on some issues, such as nuclear, while remaining in Coalition?
Appears Littleproud tried to force the Libs to agree to support Nats policies, as Dutton had done, but the Libs refused, knowing they would lose urban votes.
As an overseas voter, I don't see what's happening on the ground. But I have the impression that the lib/nats will be breaking up and making up until parliament resumes. Plenty of column inches to come. Is all publicity good publicity?
I can't work out whether the Nats' break-up is the dumbest or smartest thing they've ever done. Albanese must be laughing his arse off.